15.02.2016

President’s Day and Asian Woes

The external factors to today’s trading are multiple. The US markets closed sharply up on Friday, with the S&P futures index growing steadily. Oil quotes are continuing to rise. Last Friday saw a sharp jump in oil prices after the UAE stated that OPEC members are ready to cooperate regarding a possible reduction in oil production.

However, the words of the oil ministry for the Arab Emirates may just be words to give some support to prices, with the cartel not even considering the implementation of any measures. From a fundamental perspective, there are no reasons for us to see a rise in prices and so the quotes could easily switch and start falling.

The US is marking President’s Day and so there is no trading in the country. Japan published its GDP figures for Q4 of 2015 which showed a fall of 1.4% YoY and a 0.4% MoM fall. Industrial manufacturing in the country also fell with a December fall of 1.7% MoM.

Chinese exports are continuing to fall with a January -11.2% drop YoY. Imports for the period dipped even more sharply, falling 18.8%. With each set of statistical data we see a clearer picture of the Chinese economy’s problems; problems which are rising by the minute.

The ECB’s Mario Draghi is set to speak today. The euro has been strengthening sharply in recent times and this has no place in the central bank’s plans.